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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 12:18:03 GMT -5
Hi Maxi - not sure if we have a consensus anywhere, but my own consensus is "up we go!"
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 30, 2010 12:30:23 GMT -5
AAII Investment Survey is suggesting there is a good chance of a rally emerging over the next several weeks. But if the market can’t manage to rally then the probable alternative is a substantial selloff. quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/
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Post by cosmic on Aug 30, 2010 12:31:17 GMT -5
I don't think we see any huge move up until the Fed actually buys something. Regular buyers just don't seem to exist, and with a 50% retrace of Friday's move already in progress...
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 30, 2010 12:34:29 GMT -5
BAC has looked like garbage for awhile. I keep looking at it but there is nothing positive except that it is cheaper than last week/month and oversold. 12 is my next alarm. It needs to at least base.
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Post by natsalilfly on Aug 30, 2010 12:38:45 GMT -5
AAII Investment Survey is suggesting there is a good chance of a rally emerging over the next several weeks. But if the market can’t manage to rally then the probable alternative is a substantial selloff. quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/don't we say stuff like that everyday around here?
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Post by cosmic on Aug 30, 2010 12:39:20 GMT -5
Agreed UK, they are getting ruthlessly punished for a CEO that spoke the truth.
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Post by maxi on Aug 30, 2010 12:40:26 GMT -5
Thank you. B C and U. I tend to agree with the weakness I am seeing today. My question about BAC stemmed from worrying about a friend that bought today. I expressly forbade him to go all in but I think he went in with 1/2. Not seeing anything good about BAC myself either.
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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 12:42:35 GMT -5
When nobody sees any reason to go long, buy something, etc, that's usually the exact time you want to be buying.
Just my .02 - and it feels like the whole market is at that point (people don't see a reason to go long). They will "see reasons" once the market starts going up - it's always backwards.
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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 12:53:05 GMT -5
CHK's strength today is surprising me, especially in a down market.
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 30, 2010 12:55:51 GMT -5
from http://www.optionmonster.com...................GLTA Breadth paints negative pictureAugust 30, 2010 Mon 11:06 AM CT While the indexes have stayed within the tight range in place since May, breadth is not as stable. When we compare the indexes, we can get a very good idea of how strong they really are by the number of stocks that have advanced and declined since the start of the year. In the S&P 500, as of today just 222 of 500 stock are positive on the year, with 127 names up by 10 percent or more. That is a small number of stocks pulling the broader average higher. In the Nasdaq 100, just 44 stocks of 100 are up. Just 28 stocks are up on the year by 10 percent or more, with Baidu the standout at up 90 percent. Of the indexes that I follow most closely, the Russell 2000 exhibits the best breadth. Even in that case however, just 45 percent of the stocks have advanced since the start of the year. Uploaded with ImageShack.usWhile the indexes can advance without the majority of stocks participating, it is not a bullish sign. Without most constituents advancing, and worse just a handful advancing significantly, the indexes are more prone to sudden reversals if the leaders weaken. They either have to outperform to an even greater degree, or the majority of stocks need to catch up. This negative breadth trend needs to be watched closely as the indexes drift closer to support. (Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) By: Bryan McCormick
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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 12:59:30 GMT -5
In the S&P 500, as of today just 222 of 500 stock are positive on the year, with 127 names up by 10 percent or more. That is a small number of stocks pulling the broader average higher. I'm confused by his analysis - the indexes are all negative for the year, so why would he describe it as a "small number of stocks pulling the broader average higher?
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Post by natsalilfly on Aug 30, 2010 13:03:26 GMT -5
I don't think we see any huge move up until the Fed actually buys something. Regular buyers just don't seem to exist, and with a 50% retrace of Friday's move already in progress... Hopefully they'll be right on time, 2:45 eastern?
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Post by abdogman on Aug 30, 2010 13:06:48 GMT -5
BB's spreading on 1m xlf fas faz macd neg last 4 mins on xlf fas xlf 13.52 on 1m
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Post by maxi on Aug 30, 2010 13:07:36 GMT -5
In the S&P 500, as of today just 222 of 500 stock are positive on the year, with 127 names up by 10 percent or more. That is a small number of stocks pulling the broader average higher. I'm confused by his analysis - the indexes are all negative for the year, so why would he describe it as a "small number of stocks pulling the broader average higher? He should have said a small number of stocks holding the average from falling more. His was a poor choice of words.
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Post by deadmoney95 on Aug 30, 2010 13:10:05 GMT -5
Good morning and hope everyone had a great weekend. Carl F: September S&P E-mini Futures: Friday's price action was very bullish. Today's range estimate is 1055-1075. I still think that the 1037 low ended the drop from 1127. I also think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5. We've gotten below Carl F's low of day. Interesting to see if conviction Carl goes long a unit at this point or sees weakness.
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Post by cosmic on Aug 30, 2010 13:12:37 GMT -5
This is where managed mutual funds can outperform etf's. It is possible to have a human mutual fund manager shift holdings around to continue profiting, whereas etf's generally take a more mechanical and balanced approach to baskets.
I'm not saying that is the case, I'm saying it can be the case.
Indecision is a tough thing for an index, especially where components are moving all around.
Remember, they put too much baking powder in the cake originally - then somebody opened the oven and it collapsed. Good stocks more or less held some ground, but crappy stuff got reduced to rubble. Up until April, almost everything was moving in tandem... now, not so much, and etf holdings will struggle.
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Post by jack on Aug 30, 2010 13:22:29 GMT -5
Reversal doji on the 10min FAS he said with a big question mark.
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Post by abdogman on Aug 30, 2010 13:23:17 GMT -5
BB's narrowing on 1m xlf fas faz xlf 13.53 on 1m macd now pos xlf fas
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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 13:28:24 GMT -5
I'm confused by his analysis - the indexes are all negative for the year, so why would he describe it as a "small number of stocks pulling the broader average higher? He should have said a small number of stocks holding the average from falling more. His was a poor choice of words. Ah ok that could be it - on a re-read, that must've been what he was going for. Or at least I would hope so! 44/100 being positive on the year seems to be pretty justifiable given that the market is down about 4 or 5% right now YTD Thanks Maxi
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Post by abdogman on Aug 30, 2010 13:33:40 GMT -5
BB's spreading now on 1m xlf fas faz xlf 13.56 on 1m xlf fas on upper channel ****** i sold 3,000 k faz about 5 mins ago 150.00 better that break even
been hold since last wk
Alright-y then lets go up
xlf still 13.56 on 1m
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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 13:35:28 GMT -5
Ab I don't know how you do it with the FAZ! I would have to go back and look, but I bet I've come out profitably in FAZ like 10% of the times. And that includes 9% worth of FAZ profits in 2008
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Post by abdogman on Aug 30, 2010 13:37:12 GMT -5
Ab I don't know how you do it with the FAZ! I would have to go back and look, but I bet I've come out profitably in FAZ like 10% of the times. And that includes 9% worth of FAZ profits in 2008 You are not Ugly Enough!!!!
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Post by abdogman on Aug 30, 2010 13:38:21 GMT -5
Ab I don't know how you do it with the FAZ! I would have to go back and look, but I bet I've come out profitably in FAZ like 10% of the times. And that includes 9% worth of FAZ profits in 2008 You are not Ugly Enough!!!! to steal peoples retirement.....
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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 13:39:38 GMT -5
Assuming FAZ keeps on its downward trend, it's only borrowing, not stealing!
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 30, 2010 13:39:38 GMT -5
When nobody sees any reason to go long, buy something, etc, that's usually the exact time you want to be buying. Just my .02 - and it feels like the whole market is at that point (people don't see a reason to go long). They will "see reasons" once the market starts going up - it's always backwards. I think we are close. Personally, I want to see stocks rise a bit before I buy. BAC is just going down every day/week. When it can base out, it will be a worthwhile swing. By the way, don't forget that there are no sell ratings on this stock, so the analyst community has not thrown in the towel. A few of those will be a good signal, imo. Right now, we're just trendless. The best you can say is that we hit a channel bottom, but then key stocks like BAC, INTC and HPQ flushed the bottom channel. An oh sh*t moment might be needed to finish this morass off.
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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 13:40:09 GMT -5
Ab I don't know how you do it with the FAZ! I would have to go back and look, but I bet I've come out profitably in FAZ like 10% of the times. And that includes 9% worth of FAZ profits in 2008 You are not Ugly Enough!!!! Au contraire, I am plenty ugly enough! ;D
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Post by elle on Aug 30, 2010 13:42:22 GMT -5
I don't think we see any huge move up until the Fed actually buys something. Regular buyers just don't seem to exist, and with a 50% retrace of Friday's move already in progress... Hopefully they'll be right on time, 2:45 eastern? Yup - in a perfect world we would start going somewhere now.
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Post by jack on Aug 30, 2010 13:42:44 GMT -5
You are not Ugly Enough!!!! Au contraire, I am plenty ugly enough! ;D Hmmmm...sounds like the makings of new kind of FAStopian contest here! LOL (But are we talkin' "ugly" or are we talkin' "Uuuuuugly?"
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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 13:43:09 GMT -5
I think we are close. Personally, I want to see stocks rise a bit before I buy. Yeah you are right about that - it's kind of like the discussion we had very similarly with BP when it dropped under $30. I purchased at $30 trying to catch the bottom as opposed to waiting for one to show itself. I wonder, though - because even if I had waited, I would've had a *harder* time trying to wait for the pullback to jump on once it started moving up than I had plugging my nose and buying it / waiting for the turn. I think I probably would've bought at the same place if not higher. Hard to say.
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Post by elle on Aug 30, 2010 13:45:03 GMT -5
Is there ewer a time w/o squid? I seem to see them all day ewery day.
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