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Post by Clinton SPX on Aug 26, 2010 11:49:33 GMT -5
Gartman has been consistently wrong lately
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 26, 2010 11:58:20 GMT -5
On TLT, you'd prefer to see a clean reversal. But after the big move up I would not expect the momentum to die so quickly. I'd expect it to first struggle to push higher, or to sell and the rise into a d/t. I don't think we'll get 2 day signal pattern.
The same (reversed) is likely true about the indices.
HPQ, after a horrendous fall, seems to be basing. Look at how it stair stepped lower on a daily basis and has now managed a two day base. As Shannon would say, the charts need to heal.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 26, 2010 11:59:39 GMT -5
Gartman has like a 7 year horizon though. He's like Hussman.
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Post by jack on Aug 26, 2010 12:05:41 GMT -5
Is a red topping tail worse than a green one? Depends on scale Jack IMO. On an hour chart a tall wick is usually a reversal. On a 10 min if the rev candle is green then I like to see 2 reds to confirm it. Where as a red reversal stick only 1 to confirm. thats the way I like to do it. Important thing to me is 2 reds back to back, that makes it a 20 min down trend. Clint - Thanks! Will add that to the "Book of Tells" in case CashFilly should ever decide to write it! LOL!!! ;D
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Post by Clinton SPX on Aug 26, 2010 12:21:53 GMT -5
last time we sank slowly on low vol. we had a late day rally. Could happen again, I see tomorrow as the big flush day
I remain a bear though
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Post by jack on Aug 26, 2010 12:29:45 GMT -5
This action today is all "about fears concerning Spain's fiscal stability?" (Bloomberg)
BUNK
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Post by brosin on Aug 26, 2010 12:38:12 GMT -5
The "action?"
Hey bloomie, there is no action! lol
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Post by sloop on Aug 26, 2010 12:44:05 GMT -5
This action today is all "about fears concerning Spain's fiscal stability?" (Bloomberg) BUNK They don't attribute it to Mr. Ben?
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 26, 2010 12:47:05 GMT -5
SPY 5min thinks it is June 14th....... ;D
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Post by maxi on Aug 26, 2010 12:47:49 GMT -5
The market is tired because it stayed out too late last night.... (Maxieberg)
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 26, 2010 12:48:12 GMT -5
They don't attribute it to Mr. Ben? Would that be the same as Uncle Ben?
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Post by brosin on Aug 26, 2010 12:52:28 GMT -5
The market is tired because it stayed out too late last night.... (Maxieberg) ;D ;D Brosberg agrees with Maxieberg
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Post by cosmic on Aug 26, 2010 12:53:33 GMT -5
It's the weekly options gang. Between those, FinReg, and the economy, the market struggles to trend in any direction. Every week is now a race to drain liquidity from puts and calls, and pin stock prices. This is the attempt to make the market 'investor grade' and rid it of those nasty traders. It seems to be working as everyone gets whiplashed out of meager profits, and has to play bigger and bigger amounts to make any traction... usually to get caught on the wrong side.
It's like Kong in the chains. Eventually though, they'll needle him enough that he'll go on a rampage one way or the other.
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Post by jack on Aug 26, 2010 12:57:42 GMT -5
The market is tired because it stayed out too late last night.... (Maxieberg) ;D ;D Brosberg agrees with Maxieberg I understand that Uncle Ben & Co are all in Jackson's Hole. I was wondering why I've been feeling so constipated.
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Post by brosin on Aug 26, 2010 12:58:34 GMT -5
LOL jack
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 26, 2010 13:05:19 GMT -5
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 26, 2010 13:09:50 GMT -5
USO Short term over bought and into 50dma resistance. Possible change in direction in 20hma. fsc.bz/6BK
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 26, 2010 13:10:45 GMT -5
Carl long 1050.
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Post by deadmoney95 on Aug 26, 2010 13:10:52 GMT -5
And he's off:
Long one unit at 1050.00 from Carl Futia by Carl Futia
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 26, 2010 13:12:03 GMT -5
On the other hand:
alphatrends the short lived nature of the "bounce" coupled with inability to reclaim declining 5 day MA puts the mkt at risk of larger breakdown.
Carl v Shannon.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 26, 2010 13:12:54 GMT -5
Carl sold 1048.
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Post by abdogman on Aug 26, 2010 13:17:21 GMT -5
macd neg now on 1m xlf and fas BB's spreading on 1m xlf fas faz xlf at 13.46 on 1m
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 26, 2010 13:20:35 GMT -5
SPY Low tick of the week right here: -1200. As Spy breaks daily pivot and yesterdays mid day trading range fsc.bz/6BM
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Post by abdogman on Aug 26, 2010 13:24:18 GMT -5
BB's on 1m xlf fas faz narrowing now macd pos last 4 mins on xlf fas xlf 13.465 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Aug 26, 2010 13:42:14 GMT -5
sideways 13.46 xlf 1m
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 26, 2010 13:46:04 GMT -5
This is the thing I think about pretty much every day:
BuyOnTheDip the market has an uncanny ability to make you(me) look dumb. ....and looking dumb in this business is expensive
My guess is that Carl thinks about this from time to time as well. He not only has to make expensive mistakes but then also broadcast it to a wide audience. Takes a special set of skills to be able to do that every day/week/year.
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Post by abdogman on Aug 26, 2010 13:48:40 GMT -5
macd just neg on xlf fas 1m xlf 13.44 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Aug 26, 2010 13:56:09 GMT -5
BB's on 1m xlf fas faz spreading now xlf 13.42 on 1m
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Post by deadmoney95 on Aug 26, 2010 13:58:53 GMT -5
Tomorrow from Carl Futia by Carl Futia The midpoint of the rally from yesterday's 1037 low to this morning's 1061.75 high is 1049.50. If this market is going higher then either we will close above that level today and/or we will see buyers come in above that level there early tomorrow.
Right now I think the 1037 level will hold, but a weak close today, say below 1044, would mean that the market is about to take another step downwards to 1025.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 26, 2010 14:07:54 GMT -5
I put together a chart based on what Elk says he uses for his swing trades. I liked the concept of crossing 4 and 5demas and I'm always open to looking at new ways of trading. Here anyways is a chart that incorporates his ideas. I used a 30' time period and made the 4 and 5emas into a macd (lower panel) so when it crosses the zero line you'd buy. On the price chart itself I added a 5dma (yellow) and a 20hma (pink), two MAs I look at all the time. So, here you go, one chart for looking at swings. Have at it. fsc.bz/6BXIf you run this through a number of stocks you'll see very quickly which ones are trending and which ones are just chopping traders to pieces. Inherent in this system is the principle that you are holding for a swing. You're not buying bottoms, its all momentum.
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