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Post by brosin on Aug 17, 2010 20:07:47 GMT -5
Courtesy of Brian Shannon at AlphatrendsCaldaro: The market rallied today from yesterday's close at SPX 1079 to today's high at 1100 with only 2-3 point pullbacks along the way. Running into resistance at SPX 1100 appeared appropriate since the market was short term overbought, SPX 1099 was the high of Minor wave 1, it's a centential number, and the SPX was just about to enter the 1107 pivot range. With the market clearing OEW 1090 pivot today it turned the OEW short term charts positive, and this pivot should now provide support. Cobra: OK, indeed a tradable bottom within 2 to 4 days when NYDNV:NYUPV > 35. Now the question is: Is rebound over? Again let’s look at the history to see how large each rebound went. The bottom line, the short-term trend is up, but I closed both my short position originated on 08/11 (and added on 08/16) and long position bought today in the morning on 30 min open range breakout. Bespoke-Earnings Season EndsEarnings season comes to an end today now that Wal-Mart (WMT) has reported. At intraday levels, the S&P 500 is up 1.64% this earnings season, which is just above the median earnings season performance since 2001. Below we highlight the S&P 500's performance during earnings seasons since Q3 '01 along with the index's performance over the following off-season. While the median earnings season performance for the S&P 500 is +1.11%, the median off-season performance has historically been better at +2.00%. When earnings season has been positive (like the current one), the median change during the next off-season has been +1.70%. When earnings season has been negative (unlike the current one), the median off-season change has been +2.00%. -Municipal Bond ETFsMunicipal bonds are riding the fixed income rally these days, and the national muni bond ETF (MUB) is currently more than two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average. Muni bonds have the additional incentive of providing tax-free income during a time when taxes are expected to go higher. Investors have even been bidding up muni bond ETFs for New York and California -- two states with less than stellar balance sheets. As shown below, the California muni ETF (CMF), New York muni ETF (NYF), and national muni ETF (MUB) are all up more than 3% year to date, while the S&P 500 remains down about 2%. Ritholtz:History of World GDPVia the Economist, we see this intriguing histogram of Global GDP (below) The Economist notes: “Data compiled by Angus Maddison, an economist who died earlier this year, suggest that China and India were the biggest economies in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years.” But then asks a really silly question: “Why they fell so far behind may be more of a mystery than why they are currently flourishing.” They were the biggest economies because they had a the biggest populations, and up until 200 years ago, population size was a dominant factor in economic output. Once the industrial revolution came along, followed by the information revolution, mere size mattered less. First the Europeans, then the Americans leveraged technology to blow out GDP on a per capita basis. Steam engine, internal combustion engine, silicon makes up for size. Now, India and China are using industrial leverage, and are moving up in the world on a GDP per capita basis.
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Post by Dualism on Aug 17, 2010 20:55:41 GMT -5
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The market for mortgage-backed securities has had a good run this year, but it's taken a hit in recent days on growing talk of a "mega-refi" program that could let homeowners refinance home loans more easily at lower rates. On Tuesday, Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., proposed a refinance program where homeowners with Fannie Mae (FNMA 0.36, -0.01, -1.88%) and Freddie Mac (FMCC 0.40, -0.01, -1.25%) fixed mortgages could cut interest rates on their loans from about 6% to current rates well below 5%. A program like this could provide a stimulus of $50 billion to $60 billion for the U.S. economy, while boosting house prices, Gross said during a conference in Washington, D.C., on the future of the mortgage market. Read about the conference here. www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-market-knocked-by-mega-refi-talk-2010-08-17
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Post by elle on Aug 17, 2010 21:29:30 GMT -5
Congress is away, time to play.
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Post by deadmoney95 on Aug 17, 2010 21:33:35 GMT -5
Carl F posted the following after Tuesday's close:
The last tick during regular trading hours was 1088.75, below the 1090 level I cited earlier in the day. The electronic high on August 13 was 1089 so I am going to use this as the line in the sand. Any weakness below 1089 tomorrow morning during regular hours will move me back to my 1050-60 target. Failing that I am going to treat today's action as an upside breakout from the 1066-85 trading range.
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Post by Dualism on Aug 17, 2010 21:34:05 GMT -5
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- China more than doubled South Korean debt holdings this year, spurring the notes’ longest rally in more than three years, as policy makers shifted part of the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves out of dollars. Korean Treasury bonds held by Chinese investors rose 111 percent to 3.99 trillion won ($3.4 billion) in the first half of the year, according to data from the Seoul-based Financial Supervisory Service. China should diversify into Asian assets to “stabilize returns and reduce risks,” said Ding Zhijie, a former adviser to China’s sovereign wealth fund. “It’s the right direction for China to allocate some of its reserves to financial assets in major Asian economies,” Ding, dean of finance at Beijing’s University of International Business and Economics, said in an Aug. 16 interview. “The significance of both the dollar and euro has declined because of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, while the role of some emerging-market currencies rose.” noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ac0XxiXKXsgQ&pos=4
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 17, 2010 21:56:35 GMT -5
Oscar - OMNI says to buy the ESU10 in the low to mid 1080.00(s). OMNI profit objective number one = the high 1090.00(s). P/O number two = the low 1100.00(s) (below the teens).
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Post by abdogman on Aug 18, 2010 7:29:32 GMT -5
Good Morning Gang.....Bros,Dual,DM,and UK thx for info ....GLTA....back for the open
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Post by deadmoney95 on Aug 18, 2010 8:03:59 GMT -5
Carl F posted the following after Tuesday's close: The last tick during regular trading hours was 1088.75, below the 1090 level I cited earlier in the day. The electronic high on August 13 was 1089 so I am going to use this as the line in the sand. Any weakness below 1089 tomorrow morning during regular hours will move me back to my 1050-60 target. Failing that I am going to treat today's action as an upside breakout from the 1066-85 trading range. But apparently a night to sleep on things has Carl feeling more upbeat today, which of course spells trouble: I think yesterday's action was an upside trading range breakout. Today's range estimate is 1084-1104. The market is headed for the 1140 level. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 18, 2010 8:23:09 GMT -5
Flat opens w/no major economic news to speak of are interesting, as are OpEx wednesdays... so today should be doubly interesting!
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Post by jack on Aug 18, 2010 8:23:26 GMT -5
MVIS up +11% on 3K vol in the PMkt...guess Mr Mkt likes their new announcement yest.
Hummingbirds have taken up residence around my feeder...now I have another set of dependents to feed.
: )
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Post by abdogman on Aug 18, 2010 8:34:13 GMT -5
macd neg now on 1m xlf fas xlf 14.12 on 1m
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Post by deadmoney95 on Aug 18, 2010 8:34:27 GMT -5
Countdown to Carl F doomish reversal: 5 . . . 4 . . . 3 . . .
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Post by jack on Aug 18, 2010 8:34:29 GMT -5
XLF on the 1min not exactly inspiring (macd's neg)
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Post by jack on Aug 18, 2010 8:37:11 GMT -5
macd neg now on 1m xlf fas xlf 14.12 on 1m Remind me never to get ion a gunfight with you - your reflexes are better'n mine Ha! Hiya Rog!
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Post by cosmic on Aug 18, 2010 8:39:18 GMT -5
Countdown to Carl F doomish reversal: 5 . . . 4 . . . 3 . . . hehehehe I've only been watching for 9 minutes and I feel as though a full day has passed.
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Post by jack on Aug 18, 2010 8:40:09 GMT -5
b/t on FAS macd's pos now you were right DM!
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Post by abdogman on Aug 18, 2010 8:41:01 GMT -5
macd neg now on 1m xlf fas xlf 14.12 on 1m Remind me never to get ion a gunfight with you - your reflexes are better'n mine Ha! Hiya Rog! Good Morning Jack.......I try not to Fight with my Friends!!!!just for Them!!
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Post by jack on Aug 18, 2010 8:41:55 GMT -5
Don't like the VIX & the Euro
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Post by exabi on Aug 18, 2010 8:43:36 GMT -5
MVIS up +11% on 3K vol in the PMkt...guess Mr Mkt likes their new announcement yest. Hummingbirds have taken up residence around my feeder...now I have another set of dependents to feed. : ) Our hummers are in full feeding mode.....about a qt. of juice/wk, just one feeder. The female that has claimed the feeder is in full defense mode.....spends all day guarding it and attacking the intruders.
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Post by jack on Aug 18, 2010 8:45:00 GMT -5
b/t on FAS macd's pos now you were right DM! Reversed again down - bummer
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Post by abdogman on Aug 18, 2010 8:45:08 GMT -5
macd on 1m for xlf fas back neg now BB's spreading slightly on 1m xlf fas faz xlf 14.105 on 1m
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 18, 2010 8:49:57 GMT -5
X doing well along with AKS this doesn't benefit me as I'm short it.
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Post by jack on Aug 18, 2010 8:50:15 GMT -5
MVIS up +11% on 3K vol in the PMkt...guess Mr Mkt likes their new announcement yest. Hummingbirds have taken up residence around my feeder...now I have another set of dependents to feed. : ) Our hummers are in full feeding mode.....about a qt. of juice/wk, just one feeder. The female that has claimed the feeder is in full defense mode.....spends all day guarding it and attacking the intruders. Two seem to be sharing ours and the drain rate is approaching yours! Which variety you got? These here are green Euro gaining...another nice b/t but not sure if a red b/t counts for anything significant
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Post by abdogman on Aug 18, 2010 8:54:28 GMT -5
macd back pos now on 1m for xlf fas BB's closing on vix 1m xlf on 1m 14.12
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Post by exabi on Aug 18, 2010 8:56:36 GMT -5
Our hummers are in full feeding mode.....about a qt. of juice/wk, just one feeder. The female that has claimed the feeder is in full defense mode.....spends all day guarding it and attacking the intruders. Two seem to be sharing ours and the drain rate is approaching yours! Which variety you got? These here are green Euro gaining...another nice b/t but not sure if a red b/t counts for anything significant Same type - Ruby Throated (male has the red throat). Only type in the Eastern US.
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Post by jack on Aug 18, 2010 8:58:00 GMT -5
Green bottoming FAS tail (10min) at the moment...VIX levelled off....Euro around lod...xlf's 1min macd pos
If I go in who's covering me?
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 18, 2010 8:59:30 GMT -5
X takeover rumors by MT, had to close puts and buy back calls
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Post by kryptos2009 on Aug 18, 2010 9:00:03 GMT -5
Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data. XLF PP=14.16 MP=14.21 R1=14.26 MP=14.32 R2=14.38 MP=14.49 R3=14.60 MP=14.71 R4=14.82 MP=14.10 S1=14.04 MP=13.99 S2=13.94 MP=13.83 S3=13.72 MP=13.61 S4=13.50 O=14.18 H=14.28 L=14.06 C=14.14 FAS PP=20.32 MP=20.51 R1=20.70 MP=20.94 R2=21.17 MP=21.59 R3=22.02 MP=22.44 R4=22.87 MP=20.09 S1=19.85 MP=19.66 S2=19.47 MP=19.04 S3=18.62 MP=18.19 S4=17.77 O=20.34 H=20.78 L=19.93 C=20.24 FAZ PP=15.03 MP=15.21 R1=15.39 MP=15.55 R2=15.70 MP=16.04 R3=16.37 MP=16.71 R4=17.04 MP=14.88 S1=14.72 MP=14.54 S2=14.36 MP=14.03 S3=13.69 MP=13.36 S4=13.02 O=15.01 H=15.35 L=14.68 C=15.07 SPY PP=109.62 MP=109.99 R1=110.36 MP=110.75 R2=111.13 MP=111.89 R3=112.64 MP=113.40 R4=114.15 MP=109.24 S1=108.85 MP=108.48 S2=108.11 MP=107.36 S3=106.60 MP=105.85 S4=105.09 O=109.19 H=110.39 L=108.88 C=109.59 SPG PP=91.27 MP=92.09 R1=92.90 MP=93.50 R2=94.09 MP=95.50 R3=96.91 MP=98.32 R4=99.73 MP=90.68 S1=90.08 MP=89.27 S2=88.45 MP=87.04 S3=85.63 MP=84.22 S4=82.81 O=90.27 H=92.46 L=89.64 C=91.71 GS PP=148.84 MP=149.19 R1=149.54 MP=150.02 R2=150.49 MP=151.32 R3=152.14 MP=152.97 R4=153.79 MP=148.37 S1=147.89 MP=147.54 S2=147.19 MP=146.37 S3=145.54 MP=144.72 S4=143.89 O=148.68 H=149.79 L=148.14 C=148.59 JPM PP=37.65 MP=37.78 R1=37.90 MP=38.11 R2=38.32 MP=38.66 R3=38.99 MP=39.33 R4=39.66 MP=37.44 S1=37.23 MP=37.11 S2=36.98 MP=36.65 S3=36.31 MP=35.98 S4=35.64 O=37.97 H=38.07 L=37.4 C=37.48 MS PP=26.19 MP=26.37 R1=26.55 MP=26.73 R2=26.90 MP=27.26 R3=27.61 MP=27.97 R4=28.32 MP=26.02 S1=25.84 MP=25.66 S2=25.48 MP=25.13 S3=24.77 MP=24.42 S4=24.06 O=25.98 H=26.54 L=25.83 C=26.2 C PP=3.87 MP=3.89 R1=3.90 MP=3.93 R2=3.96 MP=4.00 R3=4.05 MP=4.09 R4=4.14 MP=3.84 S1=3.81 MP=3.80 S2=3.78 MP=3.73 S3=3.69 MP=3.64 S4=3.60 O=3.92 H=3.92 L=3.83 C=3.85 VIX PP=24.31 MP=24.61 R1=24.91 MP=25.20 R2=25.49 MP=26.08 R3=26.67 MP=27.26 R4=27.85 MP=24.02 S1=23.73 MP=23.43 S2=23.13 MP=22.54 S3=21.95 MP=21.36 S4=20.77 O=24.72 H=24.89 L=23.71 C=24.33 UUP PP=23.90 MP=23.92 R1=23.94 MP=23.97 R2=24.00 MP=24.05 R3=24.10 MP=24.15 R4=24.20 MP=23.87 S1=23.84 MP=23.82 S2=23.80 MP=23.75 S3=23.70 MP=23.65 S4=23.60 O=23.88 H=23.96 L=23.86 C=23.88 FROM: www.econoday.comEconomic Events & Analysis - 8/18/2010 Wednesday7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications Released on 8/18/2010 7:00:00 AM For wk8/13, 2010 Prior Actual Purchase Index - W/W Change 0.3 % -3.4 % Refinance Index - W/W Change 0.6 17.1 % Composite Index - W/W Change 0.6 13.0 % Highlights Low rates fed a burst of refinancing applications in the August 13 week. The refinancing index jumped 17.1 percent to its highest level since May last year. Rates actually edged higher in the week but remain near record lows with the 30-year at 4.60 percent. Purchase applications fell 3.4 percent to end a welcome run of improvement. The composite index, reflecting the 81 percent share of refinancing applications relative to purchase applications, rose 13.0 percent. 10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report NOTE: The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet. The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files. The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo. The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site. Please let me know if you find any errors in the data. Use of this data is at your own risk.
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Post by jack on Aug 18, 2010 9:00:13 GMT -5
Confirmed b/t's 10min FAS
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Post by abdogman on Aug 18, 2010 9:00:14 GMT -5
BB's narrowing on 1m xlf fas faz macd still pos on 1m xlf fas xlf 14.11 on 1m
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