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Post by abdogman on Sept 28, 2010 10:01:10 GMT -5
macd back pos on 1m xlf fas xlf 14.385 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Sept 28, 2010 10:10:52 GMT -5
macd back neg on 1m xlf fas xlf 14.36 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Sept 28, 2010 10:21:54 GMT -5
macd now pos on 1m xlf fas xlf 14.395 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Sept 28, 2010 10:25:49 GMT -5
BB's spreading on 1m xlf fas faz xlf fas on top band on 1m xlf 14.41 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Sept 28, 2010 10:28:47 GMT -5
xlf 14.45 on 1m
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Post by cosmic on Sept 28, 2010 10:30:11 GMT -5
It feels like just another big whiffle day of indecision, fingers on trigger either way. That's the problem with hanging in the overhang zone.
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Post by abdogman on Sept 28, 2010 10:32:56 GMT -5
xlf 14.47 on 1m
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Post by brosin on Sept 28, 2010 10:33:42 GMT -5
Yeah I feel a bit lost currently, no feel for things here.
I'd say the action has felt token bearish this week, but the end result of spx 1144 here doesn't make it seem like that's correct.
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Post by sp7015 on Sept 28, 2010 10:33:48 GMT -5
aapl testing 5 dma of 289.93. If we break through that point I expect we will see short covering as alot of people probabley went short when we broke the 5 dma this morning.
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Post by Rich on Sept 28, 2010 10:34:01 GMT -5
Oscar said to short the pops.
Looks like a pop.
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Post by cosmic on Sept 28, 2010 10:35:56 GMT -5
Well again we see an index run with questions on the underlying, we see banks stalled and stuck in shit, and we have little excitement going into Q3 earnings.
Sounds like a quagmire. Giggity.
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Post by abdogman on Sept 28, 2010 10:36:12 GMT -5
xlf 14.49 on 1m
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Post by Rich on Sept 28, 2010 10:37:07 GMT -5
hal 9000
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Post by abdogman on Sept 28, 2010 10:42:22 GMT -5
macd neg now on xlf fas 1m xlf 14.46 on 1m
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Post by cosmic on Sept 28, 2010 10:43:59 GMT -5
It's a wonder to me that anyone at all is playing.
The crooks tipped their hands too far and showed us all the cards were marked.
Participation is light, and without algos I'd imagine volume is nonexistant of real buyers.
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Post by deadmoney95 on Sept 28, 2010 10:45:30 GMT -5
More from Carl: Update from Carl Futia by Carl Futia Here is a 60 minute bar chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis. I thought that today would be an up day, but sellers came in right from the open and volume was high relative to what has been seen during the past few sessions. Still, as you can see from the trend channels drawn on this chart, there is no reason to think that this is anything other than a normal correction in an uptrend. A drop from the 1149.75 electronic high made Sunday night which matches last week's 26 point drop would end near 1123.50. This level is also a tad below the trend channel low I have drawn. It is also worth noting that the 1127 level is support coinciding with the levels of the late June and early August highs. Once this drop is over I expect a move to 1175 and eventually much higher than that. Carl F is frisky today: Correction from 1149.75 ended at today's low of 1127.25 - now up to 1175 from Carl Futia by Carl Futia
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Post by abdogman on Sept 28, 2010 10:47:51 GMT -5
Bb's narrowing on 1m xlf fas faz macd still neg on above xlf 14.44 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Sept 28, 2010 10:50:30 GMT -5
time for Dogs and Lunch ....back as usual .....
Bot Bot Bot Bot Bot Bot Bot MMMMM...Mau Mau!
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Post by cosmic on Sept 28, 2010 10:51:34 GMT -5
Ab, mau mau made me think of a card game I used to play. Is that what it's from?
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Post by brosin on Sept 28, 2010 10:52:30 GMT -5
Well again we see an index run with questions on the underlying, we see banks stalled and stuck in shit, and we have little excitement going into Q3 earnings. Sounds like a quagmire. Giggity. And we sit at 1144 spx, closer to the highs than the lows. Sometimes that should mean more than underlying distrust, which is nothing new. To me, I *more* distrust that those powers that be are trying to steal everyone's shares at low prices before we take off in the next 1-2 years. Wouldn't that be something...
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Post by cosmic on Sept 28, 2010 10:56:37 GMT -5
If I'm interpreting your post correctly, Bros, you're saying that you think we've put in a more permanent base now in the 1000-1100 area, and will use it as a launch point for 2 more years? (i.e. no dip to the 900-1000 range [most likely, of course]) and that shorts at the mid-1000 level are trapped?
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Post by brosin on Sept 28, 2010 10:58:49 GMT -5
Oh yes I definitely believe that. So many bears are in with a 1040/50 average that I don't see us getting below 1080/1090 worst case scenario for a long time.
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Post by cashfilly on Sept 28, 2010 10:59:02 GMT -5
Hi all! Has anyone brought to the board's attention POMO yet? I just learned about it and today is a Pomo day ... So is Thursday. Google it...u will be amazed. Be very very careful shorting today... Just wanted to stop by and give u what I just heard.
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Post by brosin on Sept 28, 2010 11:01:08 GMT -5
You have already seen the Excess Reserve totals start falling, which is the focal point of my theories: Excess Reserve Watch
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Post by cashfilly on Sept 28, 2010 11:02:27 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Sept 28, 2010 11:02:51 GMT -5
Hi all! Has anyone brought to the board's attention POMO yet? I just learned about it and today is a Pomo day ... So is Thursday. Google it...u will be amazed. Be very very careful shorting today... Just wanted to stop by and give u what I just heard. Hi Cash, thanks for the info - hadn't seen it mentioned today. Has definitely been a hot topic lately
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Post by cosmic on Sept 28, 2010 11:03:36 GMT -5
You are correct Cash, there are a few left through Nov 2 actually I think. I saw a post somewhere, will have to look around, that showed POMO vs. non-POMO days performance. It was kind of interesting, but I didn't actually validate the numbers. Oh wait, here it is: There have been 14 POMO days since 8/17/10 reinvesting maturing MBS. Not including today there have also been 14 NON-POMO days since. Results: POMO Days - 7 up 7 down NON-POMO Days - 9 up 5 down POMO Day Avg Ret +.19% NON-POMO Day Avg Ret +.26% POMO Day Total Ret +2.71% NON-POMO Day Total Ret +3.69% The 2 big POMO moves were Sep 1 good for 2.95% and last Friday good for 2.12%. Even w/ these large moves betting POMO days only hasn't been more profitable than NON-POMO. This is result for all 14 POMO's since August. Nothing remarkable. Perhaps people are focusing on the start of rally SEP 1 and attibuting it to POMO. POMO has had alot of press during this rally. POMO days beat NON-POMO during that period 6.88% to 2.28%. But the other 5 POMO's before SEP 1 yielded a negative return of -4.17% to NON-POMO + 1.37%. Hard to make a case for this being a POMO driven rally. How about old fashioned short covering on the major threat of QE2 instead. The lower bond yields we have would indicate fear and equities would fall. Not this time. QE is supposed to be a lock so everyone front runs the Fed bidding up treasuries. QE means dollar tanks and equities go up and shorts cover. These little POMO deals are nothing compared to the buzz of 1-3T in QE on the table. POMO isnt making gold set new highs either. It is the threat of the beard going all in. messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_P/threadview?m=tm&bn=58157&tid=659489&mid=659489&tof=42&frt=2
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Post by brosin on Sept 28, 2010 11:04:37 GMT -5
www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfmwww.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.htmlOperation Date1 Settlement Date Operation Type2 Maturity Range September 15, 2010 September 16, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 9/30/2014 – 8/31/2016 September 16, 2010 September 17, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 3/15/2012 – 2/28/2013 September 20, 2010 September 21, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 9/30/2016 – 8/15/2020 September 22, 2010 September 23, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 3/15/2013 – 8/31/2014 September 24, 2010 September 27, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 9/30/2014 – 8/31/2016 September 28, 2010 September 29, 2010 Outright TIPS Purchase 1/15/2011 – 2/15/2040 September 30, 2010 October 1, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 2/15/2021 – 8/15/2040 October 5, 2010 October 6, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 9/30/2016 – 8/15/2020 October 6, 2010 October 7, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 3/15/2013 – 8/31/2014
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Post by cashfilly on Sept 28, 2010 11:09:17 GMT -5
Thanks.... I couldn't get that much info...but wanted to forward... So Cosmic you thing the discrepancy in the 10 yr to equities is just the qe2 on the horizon?
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Post by abdogman on Sept 28, 2010 11:09:43 GMT -5
Ab, mau mau made me think of a card game I used to play. Is that what it's from? No...its from a 50 's rock and roll song
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