PP-XLF = 14.80 - 3/04 Thursday

[triggerhappy]

Quite a battle unsueing here. I smell SPY below 112.

[merrillstanley]

to add...we're either poised for a run up or a step backward...

w/o volume from the tutes (of which there has been ZERO), this rally is consumer/retail led

earlier this week, it was noted that this was a consumer lead rally which could affect the the techinicals on the S&P...my question is why would the tutes some into the market at this moment and risk to 7-8% downside...my gut tells me the shepple step in to short this market later today or tomorrow...i don't have a downside target, i leave that to the experts on this thread
on individual sector charts, I am beginning to see RAILROAD tracks on their respective charts...not a good sign...as the sectors are a levels which precluded the latest dip

now having said that, the technicals do state we are in a confirmed uptrend...keep in mind that we will step back on the climb...recent pullbacks have taken out key support levels intraday (or w/in 1-2 days)....also in the back of my mind is the thinly traded run up in late july in spite of all the negative news...that led to the tutes needing to join the party...

i would hope the retail investor is smart enough to not be sucked into a failed run up, but we're talking about the average american who continues to be dumbed down and misled

remember cut losses at 7-8%...i'm actually at 4% in my m/t port,
take your gains earlier than you normally would
keep cash handy to capitalize on the volatility


GLTA

[lookingherethere]

Good morning all, kind of flat today...

[triggerhappy]

I agree completely agree Merrill. Keep your finger on the triggger button. :-)

[merrillstanley]

LH, hit the waves, not much going on here

thx TRIGG

[triggerhappy]

TICK +608

[triggerhappy]

TICK -444

[triggerhappy]

TICK -600

[Mikey]

GS is on crack today! What is going on with that?

Also Euro and USD have formed another bear/bull flag over the past hour or two - I expect more downside in Euro/SPY and upside in USD/VXX this afternoon.

Thanks Merrill +1 exalt for the analysis and advice - wish I had heard that 7% limit advice before this latest series of IRA trades:

EDZ $54.50 adj cost basis (it reverse split today) - now $52.27, down 4%
ERY $11.51 cost - now $11.02, down 4%
TZA $9.14 cost - now $8.30, down 9%
FAZ $18.9 cost - now $17.0, down 10%
DRV $13.2 cost - now $11.9, down 10%

[lookingherethere]

Mar 4, 2010 12:20:37 GMT -5 merrillstanley said:

LH, hit the waves, not much going on here

thx TRIGG

Will Do. Thanks! Have a great day. I need some mo momo

[Mikey]

Another bear flag on the Euro:

[merrillstanley]

mikey, i feel your pain as i've been there and done that...it is really hard to stick to a discipline, had to learn to never be married to a stock, and learn to use stocks as a money making tool...BIG UP to you mikey for your views and data since we've moved to this thread

[triggerhappy]

TICK +872

[elle]

Just been over hanging with all the tutes at Mead Hall. They in no hurry. I'm sending smoke signals to Uka so he knows what's happening, let's see 1 puff for up, 2 puffs for down, 3 puffs........too much work back to Mead Hall

TSO trapped by R, really struggling, but if through then should pop and I'll be out.

[deadmoney95]

From Carl F:

Tomorrow at 8:30 am New York time the February employment numbers will be released. Assuming the market closes near 1119 or higher today I plan to stay long overnight and either hold through the number or try to trade around it. So I expect to post some trading activity near 8:30 am even though pit trading doesn't open until 9:30.

Yesterday afternoon I closed my long position because the drop from the 1125 high followed what appeared to be a terminal thrust (false breakout) which often precedes a high volume sell off. However, overnight the ES held support at 1113 and this morning rallied to 1123. This tells me that the market is simply trading in a small, 11 point box from 1114 to 1125. Since the up trend from last week's low at 1084 is still intact on my charts I have to assume that the market will leave this box on the upside in the next day or so and establish a new box 1125-1136.

[triggerhappy]

Looks like someone stole those giddy folks lunch that entered SPY at 1:17...

[triggerhappy]

Clearly, sitting at the wrong lunch table. ;-)

[triggerhappy]

TICK -663

[elle]

Mar 4, 2010 11:28:18 GMT -5 deadmoney95 said:

I'll stop acting all star-struck at seeing you guys (whom I've followed for months) actually referring to me, to confirm that I'll post any Carl F updates.

I can't wait to tell all my freshman buddies that I got to hang with the seniors today.

This is the funniest post ever - DM, don't you know what table you're at?

jk- welcome

Decided to stop being lazy and get some numbers. I have SPY R1 at 112.57, closed below it last 2 days, needs to close above it today or at least take out yesterday's high. Contrarian prediction - we get better than expected jobs numbers and the market sells off.

[elle]

Have to admit the TSO is not looking in my favor, continuing to consolidate above the 50. Was only trying to catch the pullback, because daily looks good for significant move up.

[abdogman]

Fed's Evans says leaving current monetary accommodation in place too long could fuel inflation; removing accommodation prematurely could choke off recovery - Reuters

and this guy gets paid?

[merrillstanley]

with that in mind DOG, BOBO would surely match Evan's intellect, and should be paid even more

[abdogman]

Mar 4, 2010 14:00:01 GMT -5 merrillstanley said:

with that in mind DOG, BOBO would surely match Evan's intellect, and should be paid even more

BOBO is satisfied sticking with common sense ....and with that I close the issue

[elle]

I'm going to take my DDSS and put it in a box, then I'll put it in a bigger box and then I'll put it in an even bigger box and then I'll mail it to myself and when it gets here...........I'll SMASH it with a hammer!

[abdogman]

Mar 4, 2010 14:05:54 GMT -5 elle said:

I'm going to take my DDSS and put it in a box, then I'll put it in a bigger box and then I'll put it in an even bigger box and then I'll mail it to myself and when it gets here...........I'll SMASH it with a hammer!

you are funny elle and you add good things to this brd and I sold mine(DDSS)for a .02 profit quite some time ago hope i am not sorry

[triggerhappy]

I concur, Elle makes me smile. :-)

[Mikey]

Today is flag day on the Euro - another one setting up

[merrillstanley]

Stocks have gradually made their way up from their recent trading range so that they now sit at afternoon highs. Still, overall gains remain modest.

The afternoon advance has been rather broad based with many of the major sectors participating in the move. However, the best gains continue to come from financials, which are up 0.9%, and consumer discretionary stocks, which are up 0.8% with help from retailers (+1.3%).

Small-cap stocks and mid-cap stocks are lagging, though. A such, the Russell 2000 is up just 0.1% and the S&P 400 is down 0.1%. DJ30 +31.06 NASDAQ +5.87 SP500 +2.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1331/1.58 bln/1288 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1568/604 mln/1433

Trading volume on the NYSE remains paltry as participants refuse to take on new positions ahead of Friday's jobs report. The lack of participation has made for a subdued mood that has translated into little action in the stock market.

Though overall trading volume is light, Citigroup (C 3.46, +0.06) and Bank of America (BAC 16.40, +0.03) are among the most actively traded names by volume. Shares of C are among the financial sector's leaders, but BAC has been a steady laggard. Citigroup's CEO, Vikram Pandit, told CNBC that Citie's return to profitability depends on the U.S. economy, but that he is optimistic. DJ30 +17.68 NASDAQ +4.57 SP500 +1.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1285/1.46 bln/1317 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1509/560 mln/1477

Energy stocks have retreated deeper into the red. The sector now trades at a fresh session low with a 0.8% loss, which is worse than any other major sector. Within the sector, oil well services and equipment outfits are especially weak; in particular, National Oilwell Varco (NOV 43.03, -1.31) and Nabors Industries (NBR 22.51, -0.69) are down 3.0%.

Energy commodities remain weak, too. Crude oil prices were last quoted 0.9% lower at $80.15 per barrel, while natural gas is back near its session low with a 3.9% loss at $4.57 per MMBtu. DJ30 +17.99 NASDAQ +2.34 SP500 +0.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1262/1.36 bln/1317 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1492/520 mln/1484

[merrillstanley]

Rumor Round Up : Rumors continued to circulate today, following an abundance of rumors out during yesterday's trading day. This morning it was rumored that Cree (CREE 68.81 +0.05) could be interested in Nanometrics (NANO 9.75 +0.04). NANO didn't hold on to its initial spike. It was rumored that IBM (IBM 126.32 -0.56) could be interested in making a bid for Red Hat (RHT 29.82 +0.47). We note this rumor has been around in the past. There was renewed AK Steel (AKS 24.25 +1.44) takeover chatter. This time the speculated acquirer was Brazilian steel producer Comp Siderurgica (SID 39.91 -0.30). Boston Scientific (BSX 7.91 +0.01) spiked roughly $0.15 following renewed chatter that Johnson and Johnson (JNJ 63.46 +0.06) could be interested in the co. As we always mention, while many rumors circulate during the day, and the validity of the source of these rumors can be questionable, the speculation may volatility in the near term.

[merrillstanley]

even though volume continues to be light, UP volume is much greater than down volume....even if A:D are 1:1