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Post by elle on Dec 3, 2010 12:02:55 GMT -5
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 3, 2010 12:05:36 GMT -5
Can we talk about this for just short time, cuz getting scared here. Not usually a neg person, but the news does not look sunny to me - instead of flat unemployment with deflation in a recession, are we going to have massive unemployment with inflation in a depression. is that even possible? somebody tell me it ain't so. Its a long topic, but there is still deflation (look at CPI what the Fed looks at). Of course commodities are rising so you perceive inflation at the stores as you have most contact with this. This will continue and make people more nervous/poorer as wage rates will not keep up with rising input costs. IMO in a fiat currency the result of deflation is hyperinflation, thus hold physical gold and silver. What any of this has to do with the market or trading is debatable as the end game seems to be too far down the road for the market to realize. Also meant to say worrying/trading off of this has not helped my trading lol. |
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Post by brosin on Dec 3, 2010 12:06:32 GMT -5
Can we talk about this for just short time, cuz getting scared here. Not usually a neg person, but the news does not look sunny to me - instead of flat unemployment with deflation in a recession, are we going to have massive unemployment with inflation in a depression. is that even possible? somebody tell me it ain't so. Stagflation definitely possible in coming years. but it'll still take awhile before we see it, yesterday's excess reserve data still shows that banks aren't lending. So basically, the market has run up this high mainly *because* of the skepticism and the money the fed is pumping in through QE2/POMO. when the banks start lending the $1T they have in reserves IN ADDITION to the QE2 and POMO, that's when we will start seeing damaging inflation that makes input costs shoot way up even more. that's been one of clinton's main points is that those high commodity costs will strangle the economy at some point (that's when you see stagflation). I think things will get progressively better for the next 1-2 years BEFORE that starts happening though fwiw |
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Post by elle on Dec 3, 2010 12:11:48 GMT -5
Can't remember where I heard this, but it was sometime this week. It might have been Home Depot's Bernie Marcus talking about small businesses. Anyway, pt was banks ARE lending, but businesses don't want to take on debt.
(btw, Bernie's interview was great)
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 3, 2010 12:12:39 GMT -5
Margin compression has already started, look at inventories and input costs now. (CSCO for example.) Companies will not be able to hide it for that much longer.
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 3, 2010 12:15:04 GMT -5
Can't remember where I heard this, but it was sometime this week. It might have been Home Depot's Bernie Marcus talking about small businesses. Anyway, pt was banks ARE lending, but businesses don't want to take on debt. (btw, Bernie's interview was great) Credit is a two-way street, that's what I've heard too. Its hard to justify taking on more debt when there is so much uncertainty with taxes, healthcare costs, etc. for companies.. I'm trying hard to keep politics out of this. |
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Post by elle on Dec 3, 2010 12:17:34 GMT -5
Biden?.....................unemployment extension chip on table. Somebody toss in the tax cuts and deal the cards.
otoh, maybe they don't want to extend tax cuts to anyone, despite what they say, because we have so much debt, they need ALL the revenues. Publicly, they'll hang it on each other, but still get the $$.
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Post by brosin on Dec 3, 2010 12:18:54 GMT -5
Can't remember where I heard this, but it was sometime this week. It might have been Home Depot's Bernie Marcus talking about small businesses. Anyway, pt was banks ARE lending, but businesses don't want to take on debt. (btw, Bernie's interview was great) Not to disagree with him, but it's not showing in the numbers: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/ Still a LONG way to go:  |
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Post by elle on Dec 3, 2010 12:21:04 GMT -5
I'm either gonna nap or walk outside in the gloom. See you at the close.
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Post by clearwaters on Dec 3, 2010 12:23:34 GMT -5
Bradley turndate in 2011 show a massive turn 2/17 - (I'm guessing down) all the way until 7/17. I think it will be the big drop that perma bears have been waiting for.
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 3, 2010 12:24:44 GMT -5
Can't remember where I heard this, but it was sometime this week. It might have been Home Depot's Bernie Marcus talking about small businesses. Anyway, pt was banks ARE lending, but businesses don't want to take on debt. (btw, Bernie's interview was great) Not to disagree with him, but it's not showing in the numbers: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Still a LONG way to go: This doesn't show causation. Banks having greater excess reserves doesn't mean they aren't trying to lend. It could be that people are unwilling to take on risk. I think that was the point of the interview... It does show that the banks aren't giving away money unlike the Fed  |
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Post by brosin on Dec 3, 2010 12:35:09 GMT -5
C - not sure what you mean about causation; these are of the same thing (excess reserves). And it without question means they are not lending. How does it not?
Even if joe schmo is not taking on risk, there are so many other parties the banks can make bad loans to. And I don't even buy that joe schmo is not taking on risk. A friend of mine was telling me a story about his mom and boyfriend who cannot get a home loan even though the bank told them they had the "best combined credit score you can have." Because they didn't have income coming in (despite having a ton of money in savings), they couldn't get the loan.
Banks are not in business to not lend money... so this is all only a matter of time. The Fed is still paying interest on these ERs as of Oct 2008. Only a matter of time before THAT ends as well (I'd expect those funds to come flooding out before they stop paying the interest on it, but who knows maybe that'll be the catalyst).
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Post by natsalilfly on Dec 3, 2010 13:39:42 GMT -5
FAS & XLF dancing around pp
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 3, 2010 14:07:34 GMT -5
C - not sure what you mean about causation; these are of the same thing (excess reserves). And it without question means they are not lending. How does it not? Even if joe schmo is not taking on risk, there are so many other parties the banks can make bad loans to. And I don't even buy that joe schmo is not taking on risk. A friend of mine was telling me a story about his mom and boyfriend who cannot get a home loan even though the bank told them they had the "best combined credit score you can have." Because they didn't have income coming in (despite having a ton of money in savings), they couldn't get the loan. Banks are not in business to not lend money... so this is all only a matter of time. The Fed is still paying interest on these ERs as of Oct 2008. Only a matter of time before THAT ends as well (I'd expect those funds to come flooding out before they stop paying the interest on it, but who knows maybe that'll be the catalyst). Yes agreed there is a supply of excess reserves, however it is the demand side that is lacking. Small business's dont want to take on loans, large business's sell bonds and have other more affordable means than taking on loans, and homes aren't selling.. I dont know too many 'other parties' that need bank loans. Only thing I see why banks wouldn't want to loan is the lack of demand of MBS investors so banks can't flip their loans immediately. However, the lackluster home sales pretty much cancels this out as their is not much demand for their loans. I understand yes they might not make 1 or 2 loans to creditworthy parties but for that amount of money to be moved we are talking about robust demand wanting the loans. |
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 3, 2010 14:21:24 GMT -5
Come on PUDA, you can do better than this, I bought the dip! |
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Post by abdogman on Dec 3, 2010 14:32:22 GMT -5
macd on 1m iyr drn is + .....now + on 1m fas and xlf
iyr 55.17
drn 52.92
fas 23.999
xlf 15.075
on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Dec 3, 2010 14:39:07 GMT -5
BB's have been spreading on 1m iyr drn fas xlf since last pos
the above are following the upper band
macd's still + on above
iyr 55.19
drn 52.97
fas 24.04
xlf 15.09
on 1m
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 3, 2010 14:45:31 GMT -5
Come on, bounce, the one time i vote in the b/b poll i wanna be right
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Post by abdogman on Dec 3, 2010 14:49:26 GMT -5
macd's still + on 1m iyr drn
near 0/0 on 1m xlf fas
**back in 10 min
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Post by abdogman on Dec 3, 2010 15:00:54 GMT -5
macd on 1m iyr drn fas xlf has been neg for a few mins but now nearing 0/0
iyr 55.22
drn 53.06
fas 24.05
xlf 15.10
on 1m
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Post by elle on Dec 3, 2010 15:09:29 GMT -5
hellooooo, hardly any stocks left, bfr gone this am until it can hold mid-12's, keeping ek forever or $9, whichever comes first, thinking of adding other 1/2 vxx get to lod, would like to be mostly cash ovr w/e, but unless folks take profits not sure I can get there
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Post by abdogman on Dec 3, 2010 15:10:31 GMT -5
macd on 1m fas and xlf has been neg 5-6 mins
macd on 1m iyr drn just went neg
iyr 55.24
drn 53.08
fas 24.04
xlf 15.085
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Post by abdogman on Dec 3, 2010 15:17:42 GMT -5
BB's narrowing on iyr drn not narrowing on fas xlf
macd waffling on above on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Dec 3, 2010 15:23:14 GMT -5
macd + on 1m iyr drn fas xlf
iyr 55.28
drn 53.20
fas 24.12
xlf 15.105
on 1m
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Post by natsalilfly on Dec 3, 2010 15:26:44 GMT -5
banks popped & stopped
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Post by natsalilfly on Dec 3, 2010 15:30:22 GMT -5
XLF gonna go green
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Post by abdogman on Dec 3, 2010 15:36:17 GMT -5
macd on 1m iyr and drn neg now
macd on 1m fas and xlf +
iyr 55.32
drn 53.33
fas 24.26
xlf 15.14
on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Dec 3, 2010 15:41:23 GMT -5
iyr 55.36
drn 53.45
fas 24.42
xlf 15.175
on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Dec 3, 2010 15:47:07 GMT -5
iyr 55.42
drn 53.60
fas 24.49
xlf 15.20
on 1m
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Post by sp7015 on Dec 3, 2010 15:49:39 GMT -5
Wow look at the short covering in bac.
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