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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 10:23:25 GMT -5
Bb's starting to narrow on 1m iyr and barely on 1m drn macd slightly neg on 1m iyr moving toward 0/0
macd + on 1m drn fas xlf
iyr 55.05 drn 52.25 fas 27.10 xlf 15.81
on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 10:27:32 GMT -5
macd on 1m iyr drn neg macd on 1m xlf neg macd on fas 0/0
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 10:28:43 GMT -5
macd back to + on 1m iyr drn both at HOD
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Post by brosin on Dec 14, 2010 10:29:13 GMT -5
Looking at all the high flying names, it seems like smoke and mirrors (through the energy + bank sectors) are holding up the entire market.
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 10:32:40 GMT -5
macd back to neg on 1m iyr drn macd neg on 1m fas xlf
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 14, 2010 10:32:58 GMT -5
Looking at all the high flying names, it seems like smoke and mirrors (through the energy + bank sectors) are holding up the entire market. You might be witnessing what happens when you can't lever up on beta anymore.
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Post by rex on Dec 14, 2010 10:34:48 GMT -5
4 firm rejections of 1246 since yesterday! Hmmmm
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 10:39:51 GMT -5
0949 from Doug Kass
Don't believe in these chest-thumping talking heads on CNBC and their load of B.S.
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 10:40:55 GMT -5
1033 from Doug Kass
The recent acceleration in the rate rise could jeopardize the U.S. stock market.
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 10:41:14 GMT -5
1033 from Doug Kass The recent acceleration in the rate rise could jeopardize the U.S. stock market. Bonds
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 14, 2010 10:41:19 GMT -5
0949 from Doug Kass Don't believe in these chest-thumping talking heads on CNBC and their load of B.S. Isnt he one of them lol
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Post by deadmoney95 on Dec 14, 2010 10:41:39 GMT -5
Morning everyone.
Carl F:
March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March '11 contract is 1227-1240. I think the short term trend is still upward. Support is at 1225 and the next upside target is 1250 which is strong resistance. I think a drop of 50-75 points is imminent. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300.
Caldaro:
The market opened Monday at a new uptrend high today despite the extreme overbought level in short term momentum. This Intermediate wave five rally, from the late November Intermediate wave four low at SPX 1173, has reached its first fibonacci resistance relationship: @ SPX 1246 Int. five = 0.618 Int. one. After hitting this resistance and failing to break through the OEW 1240 pivot range the market then pulled back into the close. Tuesday’s economic reports and especially the FOMC statement will likely create some volatility during the trading sesssion. If the SPX pulls back into the low 1230′s we should get a short term confirmation on Minor wave 1, and Minor 2 would then be underway with support at the 1222 pivot and then the 1207 level. If the SPX breaks out of the 1240 pivot range, this rally should continue into the OEW 1261 pivot range. Should be an interesting day. Best to your trading!
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 14, 2010 10:42:33 GMT -5
1033 from Doug Kass The recent acceleration in the rate rise could jeopardize the U.S. stock market. At the very least it doesn't help the already fragile housing market. Oh and credit conditions.
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 10:43:03 GMT -5
macd on 1m iyr drn is + and moving toward 0/0
macd is still neg on 1m fas xlf
iyr 55.20 drn 52.63 fas 26.91 xlf 15.76
on 1m
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Post by brosin on Dec 14, 2010 10:43:26 GMT -5
1033 from Doug Kass The recent acceleration in the rate rise could jeopardize the U.S. stock market. Bonds Hmm yeah good point Ab, corporates are probably pretty attractive here. I'm not at all knowledgable about that allocation though.
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 10:43:35 GMT -5
back in 10 mins.....
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Post by brosin on Dec 14, 2010 10:45:08 GMT -5
Looking at all the high flying names, it seems like smoke and mirrors (through the energy + bank sectors) are holding up the entire market. You might be witnessing what happens when you can't lever up on beta anymore. Yeah completely agree. I am 25% long (different from early Nov when I was 0% long) this time around but mainly through either very LOW or NO (chinese IPOs) Beta names. I don't trust the market or these valuations. Everything that everyone says is bullish is just a little late for my liking; all those things were true 3 months ago when the market was at 1050.
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 14, 2010 10:46:03 GMT -5
I don't understand how market is up, BBY just confirmed what will happen to almost all retailers this or next year. margins will compress and as they are already running lean, it will show up on the top and bottom line.. Look at the PPI if that is sustained consumption would have to pick up considerably.
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 14, 2010 10:51:47 GMT -5
Hmm yeah good point Ab, corporates are probably pretty attractive here. I'm not at all knowledgable about that allocation though. I think you'd much rather be in stocks than in bonds... Don't know how much further the rise could be.. Unless you are trading bonds doesn't seem to make much sense buying them here, still they are lofty. IMO if you are looking for revenue, a covered call strategy on a large cap company would perform better than corporate bonds. Esp. when they look poised to only go lower longer term.
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Post by brosin on Dec 14, 2010 10:56:21 GMT -5
Hmm yeah good point Ab, corporates are probably pretty attractive here. I'm not at all knowledgable about that allocation though. I think you'd much rather be in stocks than in bonds... Don't know how much further the rise could be.. Unless you are trading bonds doesn't seem to make much sense buying them here, still they are lofty. IMO if you are looking for revenue, a covered call strategy on a large cap company would perform better than corporate bonds. Esp. when they look poised to only go lower longer term. My reasoning was that if the stock market does continue to do very well and money continues flowing out of Treasuries, corporates might see just as much inflows from the Tbond money as stocks will. And since a quickly steepening curve isn't the best thing for the economy even if it is inflationary, I'd see some merit in spreading the risk out between the 2 (equities and corporates).
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 11:02:43 GMT -5
macd still neg on 1m iyr drn fas xlf BB's narrowing slightly on 1m iyr drn
iyr 55.10 drn 52.43 fas 26.79 xlf 15.73
on 1m
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Post by brosin on Dec 14, 2010 11:13:03 GMT -5
CC - it doesn't look like corporates have run very much at all compared to stocks over the past 3 months. No opportunity there?
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 11:16:57 GMT -5
macd + on 1m iyr drn fas xlf BB's narrowing on fas xlf on 1m
iyr 55.14 drn 52.50 fas 26.82 xlf 15.74
on 1m
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 14, 2010 11:19:46 GMT -5
If you have to allocate money, why not wait until 10 year gets near 4 and go long it.. Its been range bound, I would just argue the risk of inflation outweighs the benefits of corporate bonds.. I'd rather get into gold or silver..
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Post by ccash04 on Dec 14, 2010 11:21:03 GMT -5
CC - it doesn't look like corporates have run very much at all compared to stocks over the past 3 months. No opportunity there? If you are seeking yield another good way to play is PFF or PGF, it pays around 7-9% dividend and its very stable..
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 11:36:38 GMT -5
macd on 1m iyr drn fas xlf still +
iyr 55.26 drn 52.85 fas 26.89 xlf 15.755
on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 11:49:43 GMT -5
macd neg on 1 iyr fas xlf
macd 0/0 on 1m drn
Bb's narrowing on 1m iyr
iyr 55.28 drn 5286 fas 26.87 xlf 15.75
on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Dec 14, 2010 11:54:35 GMT -5
Dogs and Lunch .....back as usual ......GLTA!!
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Post by ask2lern on Dec 14, 2010 12:17:57 GMT -5
Hey gang just stopping by....................really busy here so not really trading much but did notice that the SPY DEC 120 PUTS have had some mega volume.............looks like the mkt is rather dull for now.................GL
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Post by Rich on Dec 14, 2010 12:47:38 GMT -5
I'm looking for the drop. but prob sideways.
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