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Post by ccash04 on Oct 25, 2010 14:12:21 GMT -5
checking more on SOHU, it's way beyond and R numbers I have from service subs. The squeeze is on - maybe think PUTS instead. I would agree but if its treated like BIDU which I think people could do that it can go up pretty quickly.. Maybe I am just paranoid from BIDU experiences... |
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Post by abdogman on Oct 25, 2010 14:13:40 GMT -5
I just read this on YMB........ might not be true Someone just bought 20,000 put options on BAC, Feb 2011 strike price at $7.5. waht the? There is apparently talk going on among YMB members that BAC might fail!! and I think that was to support the thought ? |
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Post by ccash04 on Oct 25, 2010 14:14:20 GMT -5
I just read this on YMB........ might not be true Someone just bought 20,000 put options on BAC, Feb 2011 strike price at $7.5. I see volume of 20,110 contracts vs. open interest of 6960... |
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Post by ccash04 on Oct 25, 2010 14:15:08 GMT -5
It always could be hedging a massive position...
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Post by brosin on Oct 25, 2010 14:16:13 GMT -5
checking more on SOHU, it's way beyond and R numbers I have from service subs. The squeeze is on - maybe think PUTS instead. I would agree but if its treated like BIDU which I think people could do that it can go up pretty quickly.. Maybe I am just paranoid from BIDU experiences... I've been watching SOHU since early 2008 - I probably still have my "analysis" at home that shows the growth rates as being parabolic in the sense that I valued SOHU at multiple hundred dollars per share within 5 years... It was $70 or $75 back when I did that analysis, and got sliced in half at one point before now getting back there. I'm not sure if it can just keep going parabolic, but take my above comment fwiw; long term, I love it. I wish I owned SOHU in my IRA rather than CYOU its subsidiary which hasn't run up quite as much since 9/1. |
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Post by brosin on Oct 25, 2010 14:16:47 GMT -5
It always could be hedging a massive position... Yeah there is no way to know what type of position this is. BAC is not going under... won't be allowed to happen. |
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Post by ccash04 on Oct 25, 2010 14:20:57 GMT -5
SOHU hasn't shown same 'parabolic' growth as BIDU in the sense that its last few quarters were not like this one however, this quarter is significantly better than last and vs a previous year comparison it looks great.
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Post by brosin on Oct 25, 2010 14:21:56 GMT -5
Definitely CCash - they were parabolic back before the market collapsed in 2008. Doesn't look nearly as good as it did then, but still good nonetheless
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Post by ccash04 on Oct 25, 2010 14:25:00 GMT -5
Typically, on the options watch to see if the purchase/sale was done at the bid or ask price.. Also, generally its easier to see if bear or bullish spreads based on this.. Still when there is that much volume vs open interest and if its in one block then its a purchase.. Not very bullish..
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Post by abdogman on Oct 25, 2010 14:25:21 GMT -5
xlf 14.61 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Oct 25, 2010 14:27:18 GMT -5
Typically, on the options watch to see if the purchase/sale was done at the bid or ask price.. Also, generally its easier to see if bear or bullish spreads based on this.. Still when there is that much volume vs open interest and if its in one block then its a purchase.. Not very bullish.. Thx for the explanation! and exalt! |
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Post by ccash04 on Oct 25, 2010 14:27:52 GMT -5
Personally, I still wouldn't touch the financials except maybe a small short on WFC.. I'd rather just play the materials and tech names for trading..
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Post by crumbdon on Oct 25, 2010 14:28:11 GMT -5
Hate the conspiracy theories, but it's sure starting to feel like there have been several calculated moves to keep financials down & chase people out before they quit lagging and run up to meet or surpass the rest of the market. Yes I realize that fundamentally they suck, but I could make that same argument about many other stocks that are closing in on new highs. Just think something has to break soon- either fins make a big run up, or they take down everyone else. The contrarian in me ( which has been very sucessful lately) will probably stay long in them until I see convincing evidence that they are making a real faceplant. I advise against following me   Feel free to chide me now |
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Post by abdogman on Oct 25, 2010 14:28:33 GMT -5
BB's spreading on 1m xlf fas faz
macd + on 1m xlf fas
xlf 14.62 on 1m
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Post by ccash04 on Oct 25, 2010 14:33:31 GMT -5
Hate the conspiracy theories, but it's sure starting to feel like there have been several calculated moves to keep financials down & chase people out before they quit lagging and run up to meet or surpass the rest of the market. Yes I realize that fundamentally they suck, but I could make that same argument about many other stocks that are closing in on new highs. Just think something has to break soon- either fins make a big run up, or they take down everyone else. The contrarian in me ( which has been very sucessful lately) will probably stay long in them until I see convincing evidence that they are making a real faceplant. I advise against following me Feel free to chide me now For me, two ways I look at going long a stock would be either a good fundamental story or strong momentum/price action, the financials have neither. If it has neither then I have a hard time convincing myself its a wise move.. (I still sometimes do it but I am certainly less confident and patient in the position). Plus I don't really even know the fundamental story b/c trying to figure out a bank's financial sheet and what they hold off-balance sheet is just too much work (for me, I just can't figure it out). |
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Post by brosin on Oct 25, 2010 14:33:45 GMT -5
Hate the conspiracy theories, but it's sure starting to feel like there have been several calculated moves to keep financials down & chase people out before they quit lagging and run up to meet or surpass the rest of the market. Yes I realize that fundamentally they suck, but I could make that same argument about many other stocks that are closing in on new highs. Just think something has to break soon- either fins make a big run up, or they take down everyone else. The contrarian in me ( which has been very sucessful lately) will probably stay long in them until I see convincing evidence that they are making a real faceplant. I advise against following me Feel free to chide me now To your major point (I think) Crumb, if the market is priming itself for a historic move (as I have recently been arguing), it is completely feasable that it is pulling back first. Historic upmoves can't happen unless a sizable amount of the market is underallocated after all... |
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Post by abdogman on Oct 25, 2010 14:39:11 GMT -5
macd neg now on 1m xlf fas
xlf 14.58 on 1m
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Post by ccash04 on Oct 25, 2010 14:43:06 GMT -5
Market doesn't seem to want to stay above 1190.
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Post by brosin on Oct 25, 2010 14:44:23 GMT -5
It doesn't?
I'm watching tech names like RIMM explode right now... I think the market has quite a bit of steam left to the upside the next day or 2...
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Post by brosin on Oct 25, 2010 14:46:12 GMT -5
On a relook, I guess I found just as many issues falling as gaining, to be fair.
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Post by abdogman on Oct 25, 2010 14:47:06 GMT -5
BB's spreading slowly on 1m xlf fas faz
xlf 14.57 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Oct 25, 2010 14:48:18 GMT -5
xlf 14.56 on 1m
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Post by crumbdon on Oct 25, 2010 14:56:16 GMT -5
Market doesn't seem to want to stay above 1190. Market doesn't seem to want to fall below 1185 today  |
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Post by abdogman on Oct 25, 2010 14:57:17 GMT -5
xlf 14.54 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Oct 25, 2010 15:00:12 GMT -5
Have a Good Evening Gang......Thanks for the input....see you in the AM
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Post by elle on Oct 25, 2010 15:05:42 GMT -5
nice, if slow, day with y'all - tomorrow
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