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Post by brosin on Nov 23, 2010 23:00:40 GMT -5
(I preface this by saying that I am assuming that nothing of substance changes in the current EU / Korean situations).... Even here at 1180ish (or on the original move to 1173), the bears have gotten upwards of 5%. That is only 3 weeks after everyone said stocks were easy money, the dollar would get crushed, buy commodities, QE2 woooo!!s, etc. Maybe they scrape out another couple percent, hell maybe even 5% more towards 1130 (1150 and 1130 will be rocks I would imagine), but what more can they expect before they say ....'hm haven't we seen this all before?' The summer 2010's 20% decline was truly massive, and if you're really expecting it to happen again odds-wise in the current environment, I would really question that. 1/26/11 UPDATE: Good call / thumbs up - market would start roaring very shortly
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Post by Clinton SPX on Nov 23, 2010 23:05:14 GMT -5
charting is dead, its all about current events
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Post by brosin on Nov 23, 2010 23:06:54 GMT -5
well, that assumes that charting was at one point alive it is, but only in the sense that the market does just enough so that charting will never work at the most important times (by default)
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Post by benvestor on Nov 23, 2010 23:07:50 GMT -5
Just as a quick thought 666 to 1220 was about 100% in about a year.. so I would say anything can happen if $hit hits the fan again.. another 800 to 1300 would be a hell of another cycle to make some poeple even more insanely rich..
But i think here and now your logic is sound
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Post by Rich on Nov 23, 2010 23:08:24 GMT -5
I agree bros, this pullback is getting long in the tooth. The bears have had several chances to take it down.
1173 could get taken out, don't get me wrong, but we're in the final reel of this movie.
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Post by brosin on Nov 23, 2010 23:18:27 GMT -5
Just as a quick thought 666 to 1220 was about 100% in about a year.. so I would say anything can happen if $hit hits the fan again.. another 800 to 1300 would be a hell of another cycle to make some poeple even more insanely rich.. But i think here and now your logic is sound True Ben, but is 1220 to 666 the starting point? Or is 1400+ to 666 the starting point? The Fed is the buyer under everything now, not to mention all the money that they have already pumped in - it is just looking for a reason to come out.
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Post by puurfectten on Nov 23, 2010 23:23:46 GMT -5
u guys r funny...watch 1130 if we get there....could just be a x-mas rally from this little blip....the pullback hasn't even really started yet...but might not until after santa comes... ..but when it does start..there will be no doubt about what's goin on...u wont need charts...
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Post by Rich on Nov 23, 2010 23:27:58 GMT -5
good old purr, still the same what about a kinder, gentler purrfecten? hehehe
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c-money
Margin Account Trader
Posts: 31
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Post by c-money on Nov 23, 2010 23:37:02 GMT -5
aren't we all just waiting to see wether or not the Bush tax cuts expire or are extended...which ever is decided will dictate the EOY moves...either major selling or buying
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Post by benvestor on Nov 23, 2010 23:45:39 GMT -5
ah just being at levels now that were before a reflection of a bubble in the economy does not give me great confidence. Altought it is different stocks that are running the market now and many with decent fundamentals, it is just as the market is a reflection of the economy- and so what, are we now as healthy as when people owned 1 million dollar duplexes.. i dunno
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Post by Clinton SPX on Nov 24, 2010 0:04:09 GMT -5
tax cuts wont get extended above 250k
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c-money
Margin Account Trader
Posts: 31
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Post by c-money on Nov 24, 2010 0:18:28 GMT -5
that may be true...don't (or not) extend over 250K...
but what about Capital Gains and Dividends, it effects EVERYONE regardless of income level...
right now Capital Gains (Long Term) are 0% for the small folks in the 10% & 15% income brackets...some of us folks here in fastopia are probably in that category...don't you think??
And if everyone else's Capital Gains/Dividend tax rate is going to increase 30% (from 15% to 20%) there will definitely be EOY moves...
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Post by brosin on Nov 24, 2010 1:05:58 GMT -5
aren't we all just waiting to see wether or not the Bush tax cuts expire or are extended...which ever is decided will dictate the EOY moves...either major selling or buying that's a good point c the assumption had always been that they were going to expire until very recently - so in that case, getting them extended might give them an added boost then?
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Post by brosin on Nov 24, 2010 1:14:46 GMT -5
u guys r funny...watch 1130 if we get there....could just be a x-mas rally from this little blip....the pullback hasn't even really started yet...but might not until after santa comes... ..but when it does start..there will be no doubt about what's goin on...u wont need charts... are you talking years or months? i kind of think we might sell off for another week or two - sideways would be better. either way, i think it is going to be a major buying opportunity in the grand scheme.
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Post by brosin on Nov 24, 2010 14:13:17 GMT -5
I'm kind of torn here - I'd think cash is the way to go heading into Friday & next week personally. But I am quite gunshy after the past few Thanksgiving weekends which were not kind to my accounts.
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Post by Rich on Nov 24, 2010 14:14:37 GMT -5
I thought the day after thansgiving was historically bullish?
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Post by timber on Nov 24, 2010 14:17:44 GMT -5
yes it is rich
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Post by Rich on Nov 24, 2010 14:19:13 GMT -5
then why is brosin-bull trying to scare me? ;D
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Post by timber on Nov 24, 2010 14:27:27 GMT -5
thats very odd brosin would be bearish after the ffr today
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Post by brosin on Nov 24, 2010 14:31:55 GMT -5
I thought the day after thansgiving was historically bullish? I don't buy into all the historical arguments, but that's just me. I would *assume* that most Black Fridays have very light trading volume, so that's not what I'm worried about. Suggesting that cash is the way to go is not the end of the world let's not be bipolar and forget all the stuff being discussed only yesterday... there are still some risks out there in the very short term of one-two weeks; most people did NOT want to buy stocks. The $NYSI still needs to stabilize as well...
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Post by brosin on Nov 24, 2010 14:32:38 GMT -5
thats very odd brosin would be bearish after the ffr today Ok whatever - I've had an ANNOYING AS HELL day at work here, and all I said was that maybe CASH was the way to go. I'm 67% long... have a good one
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Post by theMIST on Nov 24, 2010 14:33:10 GMT -5
Timber read your private messages
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Post by Rich on Nov 24, 2010 14:34:15 GMT -5
just joking with ya bros, but I am curious.
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Post by sloop on Nov 24, 2010 14:35:12 GMT -5
charting is dead, its all about current events That is so far from the truth. The charts is always relevant
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Post by timber on Nov 24, 2010 14:41:15 GMT -5
oh oh you pissed bros off rich
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Post by Rich on Nov 24, 2010 14:42:46 GMT -5
no no no, you pissed him off.
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Post by brosin on Nov 24, 2010 14:44:01 GMT -5
LOL no i'm not pissed off - i'm having one of those days you're the one who said i was bearish timber i'm not bearish, i'm a cautious bull - and most likely just because of what happened to me the past 2 years on this exact weekend it's all good i counted to 10 ;D (not the first time today)
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Post by actuarynomore on Nov 24, 2010 15:30:58 GMT -5
just joking with ya bros, but I am curious. Here you go Rich, results the day before/after Thanksgiving from 2000 through 2009: Date | SPX | SPX Diff | Volume | 11-22-00 | 1,322.36 | | 963,200,000 | 11-24-00 | 1,341.77 | 1.47% | 404,870,000 | 11-21-01 | 1,137.03 | | 1,029,300,000 | 11-23-01 | 1,150.34 | 1.17% | 410,300,000 | 11-27-02 | 938.87 | | 1,350,300,000 | 11-29-02 | 936.31 | -0.27% | 643,460,000 | 11-26-03 | 1,058.45 | | 1,097,700,000 | 11-28-03 | 1,058.20 | -0.02% | 487,220,000 | 11-24-04 | 1,181.76 | | 1,149,600,000 | 11-26-04 | 1,182.65 | 0.08% | 504,580,000 | 11-23-05 | 1,265.61 | | 1,985,400,000 | 11-25-05 | 1,268.25 | 0.21% | 724,940,000 | 11-22-06 | 1,406.09 | | 2,237,710,000 | 11-24-06 | 1,400.95 | -0.37% | 832,550,000 | 11-21-07 | 1,416.77 | | 4,076,230,000 | 11-23-07 | 1,440.70 | 1.69% | 1,612,720,000 | 11-26-08 | 887.68 | | 5,793,260,000 | 11-28-08 | 896.24 | 0.96% | 2,740,860,000 | 11-25-09 | 1,110.63 | | 3,036,350,000 | 11-27-09 | 1,091.49 | -1.72% | 2,362,910,000 |
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Post by brosin on Nov 24, 2010 15:36:57 GMT -5
You rock Dave! Thanks and +1 when I get one
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Post by Rich on Nov 24, 2010 15:42:55 GMT -5
yes, great stats. no volume friday!
Some big moves in there, both ways.
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