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EUR/USD
Feb 14, 2012 17:18:27 GMT -5
Post by huh? on Feb 14, 2012 17:18:27 GMT -5
I pointed out last year a H&S top in the EUR/USD...looks like it is still playing out, although in very slow motion. The recent run-up appears to be a back test of the neckline. Still thinking a minimum move to under $1.16 on tap, especially if volume begins to pick up on the downside. Pointing this out just as a reference to a possible play on the EUR/USD and possibly commodities - there has been a definite disconnect between our equity markets and the EUR/USD over the last year or two.
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Post by huh? on Mar 6, 2012 9:33:23 GMT -5
Looks like the drop from the RS turned into a large bear flag. That squeeze over the neckline at the end of Feb was an almost exact 50% FIB retracement of that leg of the down move. I'd expect a pop at the 50dma (1.310) to backtest the break of that bear flag (I'd guess around 1.317 or 1.318). The bear flag target is almost the same as the large H&S target. H&S target: - <1.16 Bear Flag target: ~1.17
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Post by jack on Mar 6, 2012 9:46:48 GMT -5
Nice chart huh? - thanks Exalt!
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EUR/USD
Mar 6, 2012 10:21:30 GMT -5
Post by herceg1967 on Mar 6, 2012 10:21:30 GMT -5
Nice chart huh? - thanks Exalt! Ditto.....
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EUR/USD
Mar 6, 2012 10:23:47 GMT -5
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 6, 2012 10:23:47 GMT -5
that sure is ugly for the euro
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EUR/USD
Mar 6, 2012 16:27:40 GMT -5
Post by huh? on Mar 6, 2012 16:27:40 GMT -5
50dma holding today so far (~1.3105) and looks to be last line of defense IMO. Hoping for a backtest of the bear flag (if tonight ~1.317-1.318; if tomorrow ~1.32).
Should then see a quick, large volume move down to the lower targets.
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Post by huh? on Mar 7, 2012 9:07:13 GMT -5
After looking closer at this potential bear flag last night and reviewing some of the recent intraday mmovements, I ended up moving the parallel channel very slightly. Although this only changes the break out of the flag by literally fractions of a penny, it does show that the flag was potentially already backtested quickly after the breakout. I am still hoping for and counting on another backtest (a little over 1.32), but if that 50dma doesn't hold before then, I will be playing it as a confirmed bear flag. Here's a closer view of that flag:
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Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 7, 2012 9:13:45 GMT -5
Ive always found that currencies dont seem to follow the laws of charting like stocks do. I guess that cuz a central bank can change a trend with a one sentence press release at any time
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EUR/USD
Mar 15, 2012 22:43:43 GMT -5
Post by huh? on Mar 15, 2012 22:43:43 GMT -5
Well so far this is playing out perfectly. The day after my last post about the possible bear flag back test, it did back test and pulled back just as it should. Since then, it has been bear flag after bear flag. And what is amazing is that each flag has used the FIB retracements perfectly. Today's high was an exact 23.6% FIB retracement of the entire 02/28-current down move, the minimum FIB mark. This down move is a text book example of flags and FIB retracements.If you ever wanted to learn FIBS, this is the case study. So the bear flag confirmed and its minimum target is about ~1.17, pretty close to the H&S minimum target of ~1.16. Below is an updated chart showing a closer view of the bear flag. I think this MIGHT get one last bounce before a large, quick drop. The reason for this is that if you look closely at the back test of the neckline (orange line) it seems that it formed a complex H&S pattern within the bear flag. This has 2 left shoulders and so far it looks to me like the right side only has one shoulder. A H&S pattern typically goes out like it came in...so a 2nd right shoulder would likely form yet. However I wouldn't play it on the long side since it is under a confirmed bear flag and another down move could begin at any time. Just might be a chance to maneuver in/out of related positions SHOULD it bounce. So far this move down has seemed to only really affect the pm's. Most other commods seem to be simply range bound (although down trending).
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EUR/USD
Mar 16, 2012 11:23:45 GMT -5
Post by huh? on Mar 16, 2012 11:23:45 GMT -5
Wow, that was fast. Bounce went right where it should - yellow lines in the chart below - parallel channels across shoulders. Also lines up with FIB retracements and the 50dma. I expected a few days for this move, not a few hours. Should continue down now from here. I would expect this down move to break 1.30. Small outside chance it pushes and squeezes to ~1.325 to keep with the overall FIB patterns, but low odds play. It is OPEX after all though. Anything above 1.325 for more than a few minutes and the bear flag pattern is dead IMO and a major short squeeze is underway.
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