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Post by timber on Apr 5, 2010 12:23:10 GMT -5
its getting pretty expensive now....maybe they will raise rates today
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Post by torrentio1 on Apr 5, 2010 14:53:24 GMT -5
Right now we see an unconfirmed price breakout on the Light Crude Oil Daily Chart and the Light Crude Oil Weekly Chart. -I want to see the daily and weekly chart indicators breakout to confirm -as well I look for a breakdown below the 29.00ish level on the Crude Oil VIX Daily Chart to confirm the move. Assuming the breakout is confirmed then my estimated target for successful breakout is the 100.00ish level at which point I would then reevalute... |
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Post by DaveContrarian on Apr 5, 2010 15:03:09 GMT -5
Weird thing is that the inventory keeps building ...
So much for the theory of supply and demand (as applied to crude stockpile). When futures contracts are involved, everything goes out the window ...
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Post by torrentio1 on Apr 5, 2010 15:16:12 GMT -5
Weird thing is that the inventory keeps building ... So much for the theory of supply and demand (as applied to crude stockpile). When futures contracts are involved, everything goes out the window ... -it is still unconfirmed but YES I agree with you on inventory; however, price rules... The market is as always forward looking -the sentiment may be that with an improving world economy that demand will be rising... |
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Post by DaveContrarian on Apr 5, 2010 15:47:47 GMT -5
The market is as always forward looking -the sentiment may be that with an improving world economy that demand will be rising... Of course. When you have futures contracts, it is only FUTURE supply that matters. Just wondering why we aren't taught this in economics 101. |
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Post by torrentio1 on Apr 6, 2010 17:16:51 GMT -5
I still await a breakdown below the 29.00ish level on the Crude Oil VIX Daily Chart to confirm the move in oil is real and not memorex.  |
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Post by torrentio1 on Apr 8, 2010 22:19:35 GMT -5
-still no confirmation...  |
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Post by torrentio1 on Apr 9, 2010 20:11:25 GMT -5
Charts updated --STILL we see no confirmation... |
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Post by torrentio1 on Apr 12, 2010 16:35:20 GMT -5
Looks like today we see the breakdown below the 29.00ish level on the Crude Oil VIX Daily Chart to confirm the move in oil is potentially real... BUT, it is not that easy --now we need to see the confirmation confirmed -the breakdown must be confirmed either by backtest or further downward movement (arbitrarily, I look for a close below 26.80 -just below the recent all time low)... |
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Post by commodityypro on Apr 12, 2010 16:42:53 GMT -5
Torrentio - Today was the 1st day that contango is now reversing. NY Crude futures finally today dropped below current spot prices. That's your confimatio that the move is not real and oil should fall back now. DTO looking juicy.
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Post by torrentio1 on Apr 12, 2010 17:33:59 GMT -5
Torrentio - Today was the 1st day that contango is now reversing. NY Crude futures finally today dropped below current spot prices. That's your confirmation that the move is not real and oil should fall back now. DTO looking juicy. Maybe you look somewhat short term -shorter term than I? Looking at the Light Crude Oil Daily Chart I see an unconfirmed breakout of an ascending triangle -a successful backtest would confirm the move. As well we see, as mentioned earlier, Crude Oil VIX today make an unconfirmed breakdown -this from a descending triangle... I lean bullish on OIL -unconfirmed bullish BUT bullish nonetheless. Maybe we will look back and call the Contango move lower a headfake? As an aside, I look soon for the inverse relationship between OIL and the markets to return e.g. when the market turns we may just see OIL & related rally as the sector that money rolls into -this of course is just unconfirmed speculation for now... |
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Post by commodityypro on Apr 12, 2010 18:19:44 GMT -5
Torrentio - Today was the 1st day that contango is now reversing. NY Crude futures finally today dropped below current spot prices. That's your confirmation that the move is not real and oil should fall back now. DTO looking juicy. Maybe you look somewhat short term -shorter term than I? Looking at the Light Crude Oil Daily Chart I see an unconfirmed breakout of an ascending triangle -a successful backtest would confirm the move. As well we see, as mentioned earlier, Crude Oil VIX today make an unconfirmed breakdown -this from a descending triangle... I lean bullish on OIL -unconfirmed bullish BUT bullish nonetheless. Maybe we will look back and call the Contango move lower a headfake? As an aside, I look soon for the inverse relationship between OIL and the markets to return e.g. when the market turns we may just see OIL & related rally as the sector that money rolls into -this of course is just unconfirmed speculation for now... Torrentio - Money has already been rotating into oil and oil plays, as well as gold and other metals plays. The volumes in equities lately is evidence that money is rotating out. Look at the equities outflows $$ chart from mutual funds alone since Jan. I just have a hard time believing that spot price will climb higher (as you are predicting) yet oil futures prices are dropping. What does this tell you? |
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Post by torrentio1 on Apr 12, 2010 19:45:35 GMT -5
-not much. I rely on price primarily. still unconfirmed but price tells me OIL may go higher -all those other things are interesting... |
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Post by commodityypro on Apr 13, 2010 0:31:39 GMT -5
TOrrentio - If spot prices become higher than futures then you better believe the selling will be massive. Oil in storage is not advantageous anymore once contango is out of the picture. We could easily see crude slip hard here with sopt and futures prices falling in unison.
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Post by torrentio1 on Apr 14, 2010 22:31:29 GMT -5
TOrrentio - If spot prices become higher than futures then you better believe the selling will be massive. Oil in storage is not advantageous anymore once contango is out of the picture. We could easily see crude slip hard here with sopt and futures prices falling in unison. IF you want to talk fundamentals --my thoughts... Spot prices are instant demand price while futures are anticipated demand price with the difference between the two (contango) which is anticipated carry costs including storage costs, transport costs etcetera etcetera... -it seems you are suggesting that futures being lower than or nearly the same as spot implies oversupply NOW... In my opinion this lack of contango (backwardation) implies directly there are no arbitrage plays and storage is disadvantaguous... I think we are saying the same thing BUT looking at it from different perspectives. It is similar to the analogous question -"what came first the chicken or the egg?" Price action suggests we are seeing a perceived shortage of oil developing that will require an increased supply and as such an increased price until supply meets demand... Spot higher than futures implies people want it now and will pay more for it NOW -this will lead to what you suggest eventually as producers increase output (an oversupply)... Anyway, it seems prices would suggest shortage now beginning and the backwardation you bring up seems to confirm this... REGARDLESS -you know me and you KNOW I trade price alone. |
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Post by cosmic on Apr 14, 2010 22:34:50 GMT -5
Personally, I think oil will only drop when Tef stops shorting it per USO board. It's TheLion account is already on complete tilt, and in real life the margin call would be catastrophic, so I expect that end is near.
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